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ENG England - Premier League · Round 1 ·

Newcastle vs Liverpool

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–23.20 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger24%
Oavgjort26%
Bortaseger51%
Full model forecastBortasegerTier A · 51% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callBortaseger51% selection probability
Projected score2–2NewcastleLiverpool
Expected goals3.20Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över62% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa64% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
24% / 26% / 51%MatchresultatBortaseger51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Newcastle win (23.9%)DubbelchansX276.1%1.31
Över 62% · Under 38%Goals 2.5Över62%1.61
Ja 64% · Nej 36%Båda lagen gör målJa64%1.56
3.20 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–2
10.4 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin4.5%Largest probability gapNewcastle winDifference+1.2 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Newcastle win24%4.174.2022.8%+1.2 pp
Oavgjort26%3.853.7525.5%+0.5 pp
Liverpool win51%1.961.8551.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Newcastle1.62

Hemma share of expected goals 50.6%

Total expected goals3.20Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 62% · Under 38%

Liverpool1.58

Borta share of expected goals 49.4%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitJa 64% · Nej 36%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Newcastle

1.40pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poäng7

SignalHemma failed to score: 2/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Liverpool

1.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poäng5

SignalBorta matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
24%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
51%
7
Points from supplied form
5
1.62
Expected goals
1.58
NewcastleLiverpool
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Newcastle signalHemma failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Liverpool signalBorta matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Newcastle vs Liverpool FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Bortaseger · Projected score 2–2 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Newcastle vunnen 24%,Oavgjort 26%,Liverpool vunnen 51%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.20 · Över 2.5 62% · Current selection Över