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ENG Inghilterra - Premier League · Round 1 ·

Newcastle vs Liverpool

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–23.20 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa24%
Pareggio26%
Vittoria ospite51%
Full model forecastVittoria ospiteTier A · 51% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria ospite51% selection probability
Projected score2–2NewcastleLiverpool
Expected goals3.20Apertura match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra62% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano64% for the selected side
Expected corners10.4Sopra 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
24% / 26% / 51%Esito partitaVittoria ospite51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Newcastle win (23.9%)Doppia ChanceX276.1%1.31
Sopra 62% · Sotto 38%Goals 2.5Sopra62%1.61
Sì 64% · No 36%Entrambe le squadre segnano64%1.56
3.20 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–2
10.4 expected match cornersCornerSopra 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin4.5%Largest probability gapNewcastle winDifference+1.2 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Newcastle win24%4.174.2022.8%+1.2 pp
Pareggio26%3.853.7525.5%+0.5 pp
Liverpool win51%1.961.8551.7%-0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Newcastle1.62

Casa share of expected goals 50.6%

Total expected goals3.20Apertura

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 62% · Sotto 38%

Liverpool1.58

Trasferta share of expected goals 49.4%

Projected score2–2BTTS split 64% · No 36%Match profileApertura
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Newcastle

1.40pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punti7

SignalCasa failed to score: 2/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Liverpool

1.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punti5

SignalTrasferta matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
24%
Vinta probability excluding draw
51%
7
Points from supplied form
5
1.62
Expected goals
1.58
NewcastleLiverpool
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Newcastle signalCasa failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Liverpool signalTrasferta matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Newcastle vs Liverpool FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria ospite · Projected score 2–2 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Newcastle vinta 24%,Pareggio 26%,Liverpool vinta 51%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.20 · Sopra 2.5 62% · Current selection Sopra