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INT Portugal - Liga 3 · Match ·

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score1–11.72 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger35%
Oavgjort30%
Bortaseger35%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 35% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger35% selection probability
Projected score1–1Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Expected goals1.72Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under75% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej67% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
35% / 30% / 35%MatchresultatHemmaseger35%2.86
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.8%)Dubbelchans1270.2%1.42
Över 25% · Under 75%Goals 2.5Under75%1.33
Ja 33% · Nej 67%Båda lagen gör målNej67%1.49
1.72 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
10.2 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin13.4%Largest probability gapSporting Covilha winDifference-1.0 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Sporting Covilha win35%2.862.4536%-1.0 pp
Oavgjort30%3.333.0029.4%+0.6 pp
UD Santarem win35%2.862.5534.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Sporting Covilha0.75

Hemma share of expected goals 43.6%

Total expected goals1.72Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Över 25% · Under 75%

UD Santarem0.97

Borta share of expected goals 56.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 33% · Nej 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Sporting Covilha

1.60pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Poäng8

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

UD Santarem

0.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Poäng4

SignalBorta unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
35%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
35%
8
Points from supplied form
4
0.75
Expected goals
0.97
Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Sporting Covilha signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02UD Santarem signalBorta unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk65% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 1–1 · 35% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Sporting Covilha vunnen 35%,Oavgjort 30%,UD Santarem vunnen 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.72 · Över 2.5 25% · Current selection Under