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INT Portugal Liga 3 · Maç ·

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Ev Sahibi form
Projected score1–11.72 expected goals
Deplasman form
Ev sahibi kazanır35%
Beraberlik30%
Deplasman kazanır35%
Full model forecastEv sahibi kazanırTier A · 35% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callEv sahibi kazanır35% selection probability
Projected score1–1Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Expected goals1.72Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Alt75% for the selected side
Karşılıklı gol varHayır67% for the selected side
Expected corners10.2Üst 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeçimOlasılıkAdil oran
35% / 30% / 35%Maç sonucuEv sahibi kazanır35%2.86
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.8%)Çifte Şans1270.2%1.42
Üst 25% · Alt 75%Goals 2.5Alt75%1.33
Evet 33% · Hayır 67%Karşılıklı gol varHayır67%1.49
1.72 total expected goalsDoğru skor1–1
10.2 expected match cornersKornerlerÜst 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin13.4%Largest probability gapSporting Covilha winDifference-1.0 pp
OutcomeTahminAdil oranReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Sporting Covilha win35%2.862.4536%-1.0 pp
Beraberlik30%3.333.0029.4%+0.6 pp
UD Santarem win35%2.862.5534.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Sporting Covilha0.75

Ev Sahibi share of expected goals 43.6%

Total expected goals1.72Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Üst 25% · Alt 75%

UD Santarem0.97

Deplasman share of expected goals 56.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitEvet 33% · Hayır 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Ev Sahibi-context · form sequence

Sporting Covilha

1.60pts / match
Oynanan5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Puan8

SignalEv Sahibi unbeaten 4/5

Deplasman-context · form sequence

UD Santarem

0.80pts / match
Oynanan5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Puan4

SignalDeplasman unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
35%
Kazanç probability excluding draw
35%
8
Points from supplied form
4
0.75
Expected goals
0.97
Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Sporting Covilha signalEv Sahibi unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02UD Santarem signalDeplasman unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk65% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Beraberlik probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Ev sahibi kazanır · Projected score 1–1 · 35% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Sporting Covilha kazanç 35%,Beraberlik 30%,UD Santarem kazanç 35%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.72 · 2.5 Üst 25% · Current selection Alt