Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
35% / 30% / 35%Match resultHome win35%2.86
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.8%)Double chance1270.2%1.42
Over 25% · Under 75%Goals 2.5Under75%1.33
Yes 33% · No 67%Both teams scoreNo67%1.49
1.72 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1——
10.2 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin13.4%Largest probability gapSporting Covilha winDifference-1.0 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Sporting Covilha win35%2.862.4536%-1.0 pp
Draw30%3.333.0029.4%+0.6 pp
UD Santarem win35%2.862.5534.6%+0.4 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 43.6%
Total expected goals1.72Low-scoring
Dedicated goals model: Over 25% · Under 75%
Away share of expected goals 56.4%
Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 33% · No 67%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
1.60pts / matchSporting Covilha
DDLWW
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8
SignalHome unbeaten 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
0.80pts / matchUD Santarem
DDLDD
Played5Wins0Drawn4Losses1Points4
SignalAway unbeaten 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
35%
Win probability excluding draw
35%8
Points from supplied form
40.75
Expected goals
0.97Sporting CovilhaUD Santarem
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 30%.
Match questions
Sporting Covilha vs UD Santarem FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–1 · 35% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Sporting Covilha win 35%，Draw 30%，UD Santarem win 35%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 1.72 · Over 2.5 25% · Current selection Under。