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FIN Finland Veikkausliiga · Match ·

FC Ilves vs IFK Mariehamn

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score3–14.16 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger71%
Oavgjort17%
Bortaseger12%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 71% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger71% selection probability
Projected score3–1FC IlvesIFK Mariehamn
Expected goals4.16Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över79% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa56% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
71% / 17% / 12%MatchresultatHemmaseger71%1.41
Derived from 1X2 · excludes IFK Mariehamn win (12.3%)Dubbelchans1X87.7%1.14
Över 79% · Under 21%Goals 2.5Över79%1.27
Ja 56% · Nej 44%Båda lagen gör målJa56%1.79
4.16 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat3–1
10.3 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.3%Largest probability gapFC Ilves winDifference+1.2 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FC Ilves win71%1.411.3069.8%+1.2 pp
Oavgjort17%5.885.2517.3%-0.3 pp
IFK Mariehamn win12%8.337.0013%-1.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Ilves3.29

Hemma share of expected goals 79.1%

Total expected goals4.16Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 79% · Under 21%

IFK Mariehamn0.87

Borta share of expected goals 20.9%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitJa 56% · Nej 44%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

FC Ilves

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poäng6

SignalHemma matches under 2.5: 5/5

Borta-context · form sequence

IFK Mariehamn

0.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Poäng1

SignalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
71%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
12%
6
Points from supplied form
1
3.29
Expected goals
0.87
FC IlvesIFK Mariehamn
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Ilves signalHemma matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02IFK Mariehamn signalHemma clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk29% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 17%.

Match questions

FC Ilves vs IFK Mariehamn FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 3–1 · 71% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Ilves vunnen 71%,Oavgjort 17%,IFK Mariehamn vunnen 12%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 4.16 · Över 2.5 79% · Current selection Över