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FIN Finland Veikkausliiga · Spiel ·

FC Ilves vs IFK Mariehamn

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score3–14.16 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg71%
Unentschieden17%
Auswärtssieg12%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 71% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg71% selection probability
Projected score3–1FC IlvesIFK Mariehamn
Expected goals4.16Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über79% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa56% for the selected side
Expected corners10.3Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
71% / 17% / 12%SpielergebnisHeimsieg71%1.41
Derived from 1X2 · excludes IFK Mariehamn win (12.3%)Doppelte Chance1X87.7%1.14
Über 79% · Unter 21%Goals 2.5Über79%1.27
Ja 56% · Nein 44%Beide Teams treffenJa56%1.79
4.16 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis3–1
10.3 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin10.3%Largest probability gapFC Ilves winDifference+1.2 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
FC Ilves win71%1.411.3069.8%+1.2 pp
Unentschieden17%5.885.2517.3%-0.3 pp
IFK Mariehamn win12%8.337.0013%-1.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

FC Ilves3.29

Heim share of expected goals 79.1%

Total expected goals4.16Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 79% · Unter 21%

IFK Mariehamn0.87

Auswärts share of expected goals 20.9%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitJa 56% · Nein 44%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

FC Ilves

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punkte6

SignalHeim matches under 2.5: 5/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

IFK Mariehamn

0.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Punkte1

SignalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
71%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
12%
6
Points from supplied form
1
3.29
Expected goals
0.87
FC IlvesIFK Mariehamn
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01FC Ilves signalHeim matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02IFK Mariehamn signalHeim clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk29% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 17%.

Match questions

FC Ilves vs IFK Mariehamn FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 3–1 · 71% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

FC Ilves Gewinn 71%,Unentschieden 17%,IFK Mariehamn Gewinn 12%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 4.16 · Über 2.5 79% · Current selection Über