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BGR Bulgaria - Prima Liga · Final ·

Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse

Prediction review

Gazde form
Final score3–1Predicție 1–1
Oaspeți form
Victorie gazde57%
Egal25%
Victorie oaspeți18%
Full model forecastVictorie gazdeTier A · 57% selection probability
Prediction Câștigat
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictorie gazde57% selection probability
Projected score1–1Cherno More VarnaDunav Ruse
Expected goals2.44Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Sub56% for the selected side
Ambele echipe marcheazăNu50% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Sub 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecțieProbabilitateCotă corectă
57% / 25% / 18%Rezultatul meciuluiVictorie gazde57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Dunav Ruse win (18.1%)Șansă dublă1X81.9%1.22
Peste 44% · Sub 56%Goals 2.5Sub56%1.79
Da 50% · Nu 50%Ambele echipe marcheazăNu50%2.00
2.44 total expected goalsScor corect1–1
8.7 expected match cornersCornereSub 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.2%Largest probability gapCherno More Varna winDifference-1.1 pp
OutcomePredicțieCotă corectăReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cherno More Varna win57%1.751.6258.1%-1.1 pp
Egal25%4.003.8024.8%+0.2 pp
Dunav Ruse win18%5.565.5017.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cherno More Varna1.31

Gazde share of expected goals 53.7%

Total expected goals2.44Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Peste 44% · Sub 56%

Dunav Ruse1.13

Oaspeți share of expected goals 46.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitDa 50% · Nu 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gazde-context · form sequence

Cherno More Varna

0.20pts / match
Jucate5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Puncte1

SignalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

Oaspeți-context · form sequence

Dunav Ruse

0.60pts / match
Jucate5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Puncte3

SignalGazde failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Câștig probability excluding draw
18%
1
Points from supplied form
3
1.31
Expected goals
1.13
Cherno More VarnaDunav Ruse
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cherno More Varna signalGazde matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Dunav Ruse signalGazde failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Egal probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victorie gazde · Projected score 1–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cherno More Varna câștig 57%,Egal 25%,Dunav Ruse câștig 18%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.44 · Peste 2.5 44% · Current selection Sub