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BGR Болгария - Первая лига · Final ·

Черно Море Варна vs Дунав Русе

Prediction review

Хозяева form
Final score3–1Прогноз 1–1
Гости form
Победа хозяев57%
Ничья25%
Победа гостей18%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 57% selection probability
Prediction Угадано
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев57% selection probability
Projected score1–1Черно Море ВарнаДунав Русе
Expected goals2.44Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше56% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет50% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
57% / 25% / 18%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Дунав Русе win (18.1%)Двойной шанс1X81.9%1.22
Больше 44% · Меньше 56%Goals 2.5Меньше56%1.79
Да 50% · Нет 50%Обе забьютНет50%2.00
2.44 total expected goalsТочный счёт1–1
8.7 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.2%Largest probability gapЧерно Море Варна winDifference-1.1 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Черно Море Варна win57%1.751.6258.1%-1.1 pp
Ничья25%4.003.8024.8%+0.2 pp
Дунав Русе win18%5.565.5017.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Черно Море Варна1.31

Хозяева share of expected goals 53.7%

Total expected goals2.44Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Больше 44% · Меньше 56%

Дунав Русе1.13

Гости share of expected goals 46.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 50% · Нет 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Черно Море Варна

0.20pts / match
Сыграно5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Баллы1

SignalХозяева matches over 2.5: 3/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Дунав Русе

0.60pts / match
Сыграно5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Баллы3

SignalХозяева failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
18%
1
Points from supplied form
3
1.31
Expected goals
1.13
Черно Море ВарнаДунав Русе
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Черно Море Варна signalХозяева matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Дунав Русе signalХозяева failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Черно Море Варна vs Дунав Русе FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 1–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Черно Море Варна выигрыш 57%,Ничья 25%,Дунав Русе выигрыш 18%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.44 · ТБ 2.5 44% · Current selection Меньше