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BGR Bulgarien - 1. liga · Final ·

Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse

Prediction review

Hjemme form
Final score3–1Prognose 1–1
Ude form
Hjemmesejr57%
Uafgjort25%
Udesejr18%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 57% selection probability
Prediction Vundet
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr57% selection probability
Projected score1–1Cherno More VarnaDunav Ruse
Expected goals2.44Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under56% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej50% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
57% / 25% / 18%KampresultatHjemmesejr57%1.75
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Dunav Ruse win (18.1%)Dobbeltchance1X81.9%1.22
Over 44% · Under 56%Goals 2.5Under56%1.79
Ja 50% · Nej 50%Begge hold scorerNej50%2.00
2.44 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
8.7 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.2%Largest probability gapCherno More Varna winDifference-1.1 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Cherno More Varna win57%1.751.6258.1%-1.1 pp
Uafgjort25%4.003.8024.8%+0.2 pp
Dunav Ruse win18%5.565.5017.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Cherno More Varna1.31

Hjemme share of expected goals 53.7%

Total expected goals2.44Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 44% · Under 56%

Dunav Ruse1.13

Ude share of expected goals 46.3%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 50% · Nej 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Cherno More Varna

0.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Point1

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Dunav Ruse

0.60pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn0Losses4Point3

SignalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
57%
Vundet probability excluding draw
18%
1
Points from supplied form
3
1.31
Expected goals
1.13
Cherno More VarnaDunav Ruse
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Cherno More Varna signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Dunav Ruse signalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk43% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Cherno More Varna vs Dunav Ruse FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 57% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Cherno More Varna vundet 57%,Uafgjort 25%,Dunav Ruse vundet 18%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.44 · Over 2.5 44% · Current selection Under