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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 22 ·

Flamengo vs Vitória

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score3–13.22 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa78%
Empate16%
Vitória visitante6%
Full model forecastVitória da casaTier A · 78% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa78% selection probability
Projected score3–1FlamengoVitória
Expected goals3.22Abrir match profile
Goals 2.5Acima62% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamNão57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.2Abaixo 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
78% / 16% / 6%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa78%1.28
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Vitória win (6.3%)Dupla Chance1X93.7%1.07
Acima 62% · Abaixo 38%Goals 2.5Acima62%1.61
Sim 43% · Não 57%Ambas as equipes marcamNão57%1.75
3.22 total expected goalsPlacar exato3–1
9.2 expected match cornersEscanteiosAbaixo 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.3%Largest probability gapVitória winDifference-0.3 pp
OutcomePrevisãoOdds justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Flamengo win78%1.281.2277.8%+0.2 pp
Empate16%6.256.0015.8%+0.2 pp
Vitória win6%16.6715.006.3%-0.3 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Flamengo2.60

Mandante share of expected goals 80.7%

Total expected goals3.22Abrir

Dedicated goals model: Acima 62% · Abaixo 38%

Vitória0.62

Visitante share of expected goals 19.3%

Projected score3–1BTTS splitSim 43% · Não 57%Match profileAbrir
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Flamengo

2.20pts / match
Jogos5Wins3Drawn2Losses0Pontos11

SignalMandante unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Vitória

0.80pts / match
Jogos5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Pontos4

SignalMandante clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
78%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
6%
11
Points from supplied form
4
2.60
Expected goals
0.62
FlamengoVitória
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Flamengo signalMandante unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Vitória signalMandante clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk22% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 16%.

Match questions

Flamengo vs Vitória FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 3–1 · 78% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Flamengo ganhou 78%,Empate 16%,Vitória ganhou 6%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.22 · Acima 2.5 62% · Current selection Acima