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AUS Australië - Queensland - Premier League · Round 20 ·

Logan Lightning vs St George Willawong FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–13.10 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst58%
Gelijkspel20%
Uitwinst22%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 58% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst58% selection probability
Projected score2–1Logan LightningSt George Willawong FC
Expected goals3.10Openen match profile
Goals 2.5Boven60% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee59% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
58% / 20% / 22%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst58%1.72
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (20.3%)Dubbele Kans1279.7%1.25
Boven 60% · Onder 40%Goals 2.5Boven60%1.67
Ja 41% · Nee 59%Beide teams scorenNee59%1.69
3.10 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
8.9 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapLogan Lightning winDifference+2.8 pp
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Logan Lightning win58%1.721.6255.2%+2.8 pp
Gelijkspel20%5.004.3320.6%-0.6 pp
St George Willawong FC win22%4.553.7024.2%-2.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Logan Lightning2.50

Thuis share of expected goals 80.6%

Total expected goals3.10Openen

Dedicated goals model: Boven 60% · Onder 40%

St George Willawong FC0.60

Uit share of expected goals 19.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 41% · Nee 59%Match profileOpenen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Logan Lightning

1.40pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punten7

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 5/5

Uit-context · form sequence

St George Willawong FC

1.80pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Punten9

SignalThuis won 2/4 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
58%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
22%
7
Points from supplied form
9
2.50
Expected goals
0.60
Logan LightningSt George Willawong FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Logan Lightning signalThuis matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02St George Willawong FC signalThuis won 2/4 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk42% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Logan Lightning vs St George Willawong FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 58% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Logan Lightning gewonnen 58%,Gelijkspel 20%,St George Willawong FC gewonnen 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.10 · Boven 2.5 60% · Current selection Boven