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AUS Australia Queensland Premier League · Round 20 ·

Logan Lightning vs St George Willawong FC

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–13.10 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier58%
Uavgjort20%
Borteseier22%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 58% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier58% selection probability
Projected score2–1Logan LightningSt George Willawong FC
Expected goals3.10Åpning match profile
Goals 2.5Over60% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerNei59% for the selected side
Expected corners8.9Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
58% / 20% / 22%KampresultatHjemmeseier58%1.72
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (20.3%)Dobbel sjanse1279.7%1.25
Over 60% · Under 40%Goals 2.5Over60%1.67
Ja 41% · Nei 59%Begge lag scorerNei59%1.69
3.10 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
8.9 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.9%Largest probability gapLogan Lightning winDifference+2.8 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Logan Lightning win58%1.721.6255.2%+2.8 pp
Uavgjort20%5.004.3320.6%-0.6 pp
St George Willawong FC win22%4.553.7024.2%-2.2 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Logan Lightning2.50

Hjemme share of expected goals 80.6%

Total expected goals3.10Åpning

Dedicated goals model: Over 60% · Under 40%

St George Willawong FC0.60

Borte share of expected goals 19.4%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 41% · Nei 59%Match profileÅpning
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Logan Lightning

1.40pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Poeng7

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 5/5

Borte-context · form sequence

St George Willawong FC

1.80pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn0Losses2Poeng9

SignalHjemme won 2/4 recent home matches

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
58%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
22%
7
Points from supplied form
9
2.50
Expected goals
0.60
Logan LightningSt George Willawong FC
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Logan Lightning signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02St George Willawong FC signalHjemme won 2/4 recent home matches

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk42% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 20%.

Match questions

Logan Lightning vs St George Willawong FC FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–1 · 58% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Logan Lightning vunnet 58%,Uavgjort 20%,St George Willawong FC vunnet 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.10 · Over 2.5 60% · Current selection Over