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HND Honduras - Liga Nacional · Round 1 ·

Real España vs Genesis de Comayagua

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score2–12.90 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst51%
Gelijkspel26%
Uitwinst22%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 51% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst51% selection probability
Projected score2–1Real EspañaGenesis de Comayagua
Expected goals2.90Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Boven55% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenJa53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Onder 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
51% / 26% / 22%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst51%1.96
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Genesis de Comayagua win (22.4%)Dubbele Kans1X77.6%1.29
Boven 55% · Onder 45%Goals 2.5Boven55%1.82
Ja 53% · Nee 47%Beide teams scorenJa53%1.89
2.90 total expected goalsExacte score2–1
9.3 expected match cornersHoekschoppenOnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nee snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityEerlijke odds
Real España win51%1.96
Gelijkspel26%3.85
Genesis de Comayagua win22%4.55

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Real España1.94

Thuis share of expected goals 66.9%

Total expected goals2.90Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Boven 55% · Onder 45%

Genesis de Comayagua0.96

Uit share of expected goals 33.1%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 53% · Nee 47%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Real España

1.40pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn1Losses2Punten7

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Genesis de Comayagua

1.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Punten8

SignalUit unbeaten 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
51%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
22%
7
Points from supplied form
8
1.94
Expected goals
0.96
Real EspañaGenesis de Comayagua
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Real España signalThuis matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Genesis de Comayagua signalUit unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk49% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Real España vs Genesis de Comayagua FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 2–1 · 51% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Real España gewonnen 51%,Gelijkspel 26%,Genesis de Comayagua gewonnen 22%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.90 · Boven 2.5 55% · Current selection Boven