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DEU Germany 3. Liga · Round 1 ·

Alemannia Aachen vs Verl

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–23.46 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier42%
Uavgjort25%
Borteseier33%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier42% selection probability
Projected score2–2Alemannia AachenVerl
Expected goals3.46Åpning match profile
Goals 2.5Over67% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa68% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
42% / 25% / 33%KampresultatHjemmeseier42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.9%)Dobbel sjanse1275.1%1.33
Over 67% · Under 33%Goals 2.5Over67%1.49
Ja 68% · Nei 32%Begge lag scorerJa68%1.47
3.46 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–2
10.1 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.1%Largest probability gapAlemannia Aachen winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomePrognoseRettferdig oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Alemannia Aachen win42%2.382.1042.9%-0.9 pp
Uavgjort25%4.003.6025%0.0 pp
Verl win33%3.032.8032.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Alemannia Aachen1.72

Hjemme share of expected goals 49.7%

Total expected goals3.46Åpning

Dedicated goals model: Over 67% · Under 33%

Verl1.74

Borte share of expected goals 50.3%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitJa 68% · Nei 32%Match profileÅpning
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Alemannia Aachen

2.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poeng10

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Verl

1.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poeng6

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
33%
10
Points from supplied form
6
1.72
Expected goals
1.74
Alemannia AachenVerl
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Alemannia Aachen signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Verl signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Alemannia Aachen vs Verl FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 2–2 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Alemannia Aachen vunnet 42%,Uavgjort 25%,Verl vunnet 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.46 · Over 2.5 67% · Current selection Over