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DEU Германия - 3-я лига · Round 1 ·

Алемания Ахен vs Ферль

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score2–23.46 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев42%
Ничья25%
Победа гостей33%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев42% selection probability
Projected score2–2Алемания АхенФерль
Expected goals3.46Открытие match profile
Goals 2.5Больше67% for the selected side
Обе забьютДа68% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Больше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
42% / 25% / 33%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.9%)Двойной шанс1275.1%1.33
Больше 67% · Меньше 33%Goals 2.5Больше67%1.49
Да 68% · Нет 32%Обе забьютДа68%1.47
3.46 total expected goalsТочный счёт2–2
10.1 expected match cornersУгловыеБольше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.1%Largest probability gapАлемания Ахен winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Алемания Ахен win42%2.382.1042.9%-0.9 pp
Ничья25%4.003.6025%0.0 pp
Ферль win33%3.032.8032.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Алемания Ахен1.72

Хозяева share of expected goals 49.7%

Total expected goals3.46Открытие

Dedicated goals model: Больше 67% · Меньше 33%

Ферль1.74

Гости share of expected goals 50.3%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitДа 68% · Нет 32%Match profileОткрытие
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Алемания Ахен

2.00pts / match
Сыграно5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Баллы10

SignalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Ферль

1.20pts / match
Сыграно5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Баллы6

SignalХозяева matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
33%
10
Points from supplied form
6
1.72
Expected goals
1.74
Алемания АхенФерль
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Алемания Ахен signalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Ферль signalХозяева matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Алемания Ахен vs Ферль FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 2–2 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Алемания Ахен выигрыш 42%,Ничья 25%,Ферль выигрыш 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.46 · ТБ 2.5 67% · Current selection Больше