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DEU Deutschland - 3. Liga · Round 1 ·

Alemannia Aachen vs Verl

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–23.46 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg42%
Unentschieden25%
Auswärtssieg33%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg42% selection probability
Projected score2–2Alemannia AachenVerl
Expected goals3.46Eröffnung match profile
Goals 2.5Über67% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenJa68% for the selected side
Expected corners10.1Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
42% / 25% / 33%SpielergebnisHeimsieg42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.9%)Doppelte Chance1275.1%1.33
Über 67% · Unter 33%Goals 2.5Über67%1.49
Ja 68% · Nein 32%Beide Teams treffenJa68%1.47
3.46 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–2
10.1 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.1%Largest probability gapAlemannia Aachen winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Alemannia Aachen win42%2.382.1042.9%-0.9 pp
Unentschieden25%4.003.6025%0.0 pp
Verl win33%3.032.8032.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Alemannia Aachen1.72

Heim share of expected goals 49.7%

Total expected goals3.46Eröffnung

Dedicated goals model: Über 67% · Unter 33%

Verl1.74

Auswärts share of expected goals 50.3%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitJa 68% · Nein 32%Match profileEröffnung
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Alemannia Aachen

2.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punkte10

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Verl

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punkte6

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
42%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
33%
10
Points from supplied form
6
1.72
Expected goals
1.74
Alemannia AachenVerl
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Alemannia Aachen signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Verl signalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Alemannia Aachen vs Verl FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–2 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Alemannia Aachen Gewinn 42%,Unentschieden 25%,Verl Gewinn 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.46 · Über 2.5 67% · Current selection Über