Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
31% / 27% / 42%Match resultAway win42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.8%)Double chance1273.2%1.37
Over 56% · Under 44%Goals 2.5Over56%1.79
Yes 59% · No 41%Both teams scoreYes59%1.69
2.93 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2——
9.2 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin9.3%Largest probability gapPenarol winDifference-0.6 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Montevideo City Torque win31%3.233.0030.5%+0.5 pp
Draw27%3.703.4026.9%+0.1 pp
Penarol win42%2.382.1542.6%-0.6 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 47.4%
Total expected goals2.93Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Over 56% · Under 44%
Away share of expected goals 52.6%
Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 59% · No 41%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.00pts / matchMontevideo City Torque
DWWLW
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10
SignalHome unbeaten 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
0.40pts / matchPenarol
LDDLL
Played5Wins0Drawn2Losses3Points2
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
31%
Win probability excluding draw
42%10
Points from supplied form
21.39
Expected goals
1.54Montevideo City TorquePenarol
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on AWAY
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 27%.
Match questions
Montevideo City Torque vs Penarol FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–2 · 42% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Montevideo City Torque win 31%，Draw 27%，Penarol win 42%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.93 · Over 2.5 56% · Current selection Over。