Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
54% / 31% / 15%Match resultHome win54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Montevideo Wanderers win (15.4%)Double chance1X84.6%1.18
Over 28% · Under 72%Goals 2.5Under72%1.39
Yes 25% · No 75%Both teams scoreNo75%1.33
1.82 total expected goalsCorrect score1–0——
8.7 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5——
Probability view
Forecast probabilities and fair odds
No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.
OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Defensor Sporting win54%1.85
Draw31%3.23
Montevideo Wanderers win15%6.67
Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 78%
Total expected goals1.82Low-scoring
Dedicated goals model: Over 28% · Under 72%
Away share of expected goals 22%
Projected score1–0BTTS splitYes 25% · No 75%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
0.80pts / matchDefensor Sporting
LDLLW
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4
SignalHome failed to score: 2/5
Away-context · form sequence
0.60pts / matchMontevideo Wanderers
LDDLD
Played5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Points3
SignalAway matches over 2.5: 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
54%
Win probability excluding draw
15%4
Points from supplied form
31.42
Expected goals
0.40Defensor SportingMontevideo Wanderers
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 31%.
Match questions
Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo Wanderers FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–0 · 54% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Defensor Sporting win 54%，Draw 31%，Montevideo Wanderers win 15%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 1.82 · Over 2.5 28% · Current selection Under。