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Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo Wanderers

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score1–01.82 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy54%
Remis31%
Wygrana gości15%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 54% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy54% selection probability
Projected score1–0Defensor SportingMontevideo Wanderers
Expected goals1.82Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Poniżej72% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląNie75% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Poniżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
54% / 31% / 15%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy54%1.85
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Montevideo Wanderers win (15.5%)Podwójna szansa1X84.5%1.18
Powyżej 28% · Poniżej 72%Goals 2.5Poniżej72%1.39
Tak 25% · Nie 75%Obie drużyny strzeląNie75%1.33
1.82 total expected goalsDokładny wynik1–0
8.7 expected match cornersRożnePoniżej 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nie snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityUczciwy kurs
Defensor Sporting win54%1.85
Remis31%3.23
Montevideo Wanderers win15%6.67

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Defensor Sporting1.42

Gospodarze share of expected goals 78%

Total expected goals1.82Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 28% · Poniżej 72%

Montevideo Wanderers0.40

Goście share of expected goals 22%

Projected score1–0BTTS splitTak 25% · Nie 75%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Defensor Sporting

0.80pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkty4

SignalGospodarze failed to score: 2/5

Goście-context · form sequence

Montevideo Wanderers

0.60pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins0Drawn3Losses2Punkty3

SignalGoście matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
54%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
15%
4
Points from supplied form
3
1.42
Expected goals
0.40
Defensor SportingMontevideo Wanderers
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Defensor Sporting signalGospodarze failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Montevideo Wanderers signalGoście matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk46% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 31%.

Match questions

Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo Wanderers FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 1–0 · 54% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Defensor Sporting wygrana 54%,Remis 31%,Montevideo Wanderers wygrana 15%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.82 · Powyżej 2.5 28% · Current selection Poniżej