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ARG Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · Round 28 ·

CA Brown de Adrogue vs Excursionistas

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–11.91 expected goals
Away form
Home win29%
Draw32%
Away win39%
Full model forecastAway winTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callAway win39% selection probability
Projected score1–1CA Brown de AdrogueExcursionistas
Expected goals1.91Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under70% for the selected side
Both teams scoreNo65% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
29% / 32% / 39%Match resultAway win39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes CA Brown de Adrogue win (29%)Double chanceX271%1.41
Over 30% · Under 70%Goals 2.5Under70%1.43
Yes 35% · No 65%Both teams scoreNo65%1.54
1.91 total expected goalsCorrect score1–1
9.4 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.6%Largest probability gapCA Brown de Adrogue winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
CA Brown de Adrogue win29%3.453.0029.9%-0.9 pp
Draw32%3.132.8032%0.0 pp
Excursionistas win39%2.562.3538.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CA Brown de Adrogue0.68

Home share of expected goals 35.6%

Total expected goals1.91Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 30% · Under 70%

Excursionistas1.23

Away share of expected goals 64.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitYes 35% · No 65%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

CA Brown de Adrogue

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome matches under 2.5: 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Excursionistas

1.60pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalHome clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
29%
Win probability excluding draw
39%
5
Points from supplied form
8
0.68
Expected goals
1.23
CA Brown de AdrogueExcursionistas
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CA Brown de Adrogue signalHome matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Excursionistas signalHome clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

CA Brown de Adrogue vs Excursionistas FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Away win · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CA Brown de Adrogue win 29%,Draw 32%,Excursionistas win 39%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.91 · Over 2.5 30% · Current selection Under