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ARG Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · Round 28 ·

CA Brown de Adrogué vs Excursionistas

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score1–11.91 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile29%
Nul32%
Victoire à l’extérieur39%
Full model forecastVictoire à l’extérieurTier A · 39% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à l’extérieur39% selection probability
Projected score1–1CA Brown de AdroguéExcursionistas
Expected goals1.91Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de70% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon65% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
29% / 32% / 39%Résultat du matchVictoire à l’extérieur39%2.56
Derived from 1X2 · excludes CA Brown de Adrogué win (29%)Double chanceX271%1.41
Plus de 30% · Moins de 70%Goals 2.5Moins de70%1.43
Oui 35% · Non 65%Les deux équipes marquentNon65%1.54
1.91 total expected goalsScore exact1–1
9.4 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.6%Largest probability gapCA Brown de Adrogué winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomePronosticCote justeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
CA Brown de Adrogué win29%3.453.0029.9%-0.9 pp
Nul32%3.132.8032%0.0 pp
Excursionistas win39%2.562.3538.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

CA Brown de Adrogué0.68

Domicile share of expected goals 35.6%

Total expected goals1.91Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 30% · Moins de 70%

Excursionistas1.23

Extérieur share of expected goals 64.4%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitOui 35% · Non 65%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

CA Brown de Adrogué

1.00pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalDomicile matches under 2.5: 5/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Excursionistas

1.60pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn2Losses1Points8

SignalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
29%
Gagné probability excluding draw
39%
5
Points from supplied form
8
0.68
Expected goals
1.23
CA Brown de AdroguéExcursionistas
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01CA Brown de Adrogué signalDomicile matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Excursionistas signalDomicile clean sheets: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk61% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 32%.

Match questions

CA Brown de Adrogué vs Excursionistas FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à l’extérieur · Projected score 1–1 · 39% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

CA Brown de Adrogué victoire 29%,Nul 32%,Excursionistas victoire 39%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 1.91 · Plus de 2.5 30% · Current selection Moins de