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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Venados FC vs Tapatio

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score2–23.92 expected goals
Away form
Home win46%
Draw24%
Away win29%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 46% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win46% selection probability
Projected score2–2Venados FCTapatio
Expected goals3.92Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over75% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes73% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
46% / 24% / 29%Match resultHome win46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.3%)Double chance1275.7%1.32
Over 75% · Under 25%Goals 2.5Over75%1.33
Yes 73% · No 27%Both teams scoreYes73%1.37
3.92 total expected goalsCorrect score2–2
9.3 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
Venados FC win46%2.17
Draw24%4.17
Tapatio win29%3.45

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Venados FC2.29

Home share of expected goals 58.4%

Total expected goals3.92Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 75% · Under 25%

Tapatio1.63

Away share of expected goals 41.6%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitYes 73% · No 27%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Venados FC

1.80pts / match
Played5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Points9

SignalHome unbeaten 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

Tapatio

1.00pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Win probability excluding draw
29%
9
Points from supplied form
5
2.29
Expected goals
1.63
Venados FCTapatio
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Venados FC signalHome unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tapatio signalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Venados FC vs Tapatio FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–2 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Venados FC win 46%,Draw 24%,Tapatio win 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.92 · Over 2.5 75% · Current selection Over