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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Venados FC vs Tapatio

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Mandante form
Projected score2–23.92 expected goals
Visitante form
Vitória da casa46%
Empate24%
Vitória visitante29%
Full model forecastVitória da casaTier A · 46% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVitória da casa46% selection probability
Projected score2–2Venados FCTapatio
Expected goals3.92Abrir match profile
Goals 2.5Acima75% for the selected side
Ambas as equipes marcamSim73% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Abaixo 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSeleçãoProbabilidadeOdds justas
46% / 24% / 29%Resultado da partidaVitória da casa46%2.17
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.3%)Dupla Chance1275.7%1.32
Acima 75% · Abaixo 25%Goals 2.5Acima75%1.33
Sim 73% · Não 27%Ambas as equipes marcamSim73%1.37
3.92 total expected goalsPlacar exato2–2
9.3 expected match cornersEscanteiosAbaixo 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Não snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityOdds justas
Venados FC win46%2.17
Empate24%4.17
Tapatio win29%3.45

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Venados FC2.29

Mandante share of expected goals 58.4%

Total expected goals3.92Abrir

Dedicated goals model: Acima 75% · Abaixo 25%

Tapatio1.63

Visitante share of expected goals 41.6%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitSim 73% · Não 27%Match profileAbrir
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Mandante-context · form sequence

Venados FC

1.80pts / match
Jogos5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Pontos9

SignalMandante unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Tapatio

1.00pts / match
Jogos5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Pontos5

SignalMandante matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
46%
Ganhou probability excluding draw
29%
9
Points from supplied form
5
2.29
Expected goals
1.63
Venados FCTapatio
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Venados FC signalMandante unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tapatio signalMandante matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk54% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 24%.

Match questions

Venados FC vs Tapatio FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vitória da casa · Projected score 2–2 · 46% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Venados FC ganhou 46%,Empate 24%,Tapatio ganhou 29%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.92 · Acima 2.5 75% · Current selection Acima