Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
74% / 15% / 11%Match resultHome win74%1.35
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fortuna Sittard win (11.1%)Double chance1X88.9%1.12
Over 88% · Under 12%Goals 2.5Over88%1.14
Yes 65% · No 35%Both teams scoreYes65%1.54
5.06 total expected goalsCorrect score4–1——
11.3 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5——
Probability view
Forecast probabilities and fair odds
No snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.
OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
PSV win74%1.35
Draw15%6.67
Fortuna Sittard win11%9.09
Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 78.7%
Total expected goals5.06Open
Dedicated goals model: Over 88% · Under 12%
Away share of expected goals 21.3%
Projected score4–1BTTS splitYes 65% · No 35%Match profileOpen
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.00pts / matchPSV
WLDWW
Played5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Points10
SignalHome unbeaten 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.20pts / matchFortuna Sittard
WLLWL
Played5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 4/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
74%
Win probability excluding draw
11%10
Points from supplied form
63.98
Expected goals
1.08PSVFortuna Sittard
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 15%.
Match questions
PSV vs Fortuna Sittard FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 4–1 · 74% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
PSV win 74%，Draw 15%，Fortuna Sittard win 11%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 5.06 · Over 2.5 88% · Current selection Over。