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PSV vs Fortuna Sittard

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score4–15.06 expected goals
Borte form
Hjemmeseier74%
Uavgjort15%
Borteseier11%
Full model forecastHjemmeseierTier A · 74% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmeseier74% selection probability
Projected score4–1PSVFortuna Sittard
Expected goals5.06Åpning match profile
Goals 2.5Over88% for the selected side
Begge lag scorerJa65% for the selected side
Expected corners11.3Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSannsynlighetRettferdig odds
74% / 15% / 11%KampresultatHjemmeseier74%1.35
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fortuna Sittard win (11.1%)Dobbel sjanse1X88.9%1.12
Over 88% · Under 12%Goals 2.5Over88%1.14
Ja 65% · Nei 35%Begge lag scorerJa65%1.54
5.06 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat4–1
11.3 expected match cornersHjørnesparkOver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nei snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRettferdig odds
PSV win74%1.35
Uavgjort15%6.67
Fortuna Sittard win11%9.09

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

PSV3.98

Hjemme share of expected goals 78.7%

Total expected goals5.06Åpning

Dedicated goals model: Over 88% · Under 12%

Fortuna Sittard1.08

Borte share of expected goals 21.3%

Projected score4–1BTTS splitJa 65% · Nei 35%Match profileÅpning
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

PSV

2.00pts / match
Spilt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poeng10

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Borte-context · form sequence

Fortuna Sittard

1.20pts / match
Spilt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poeng6

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
74%
Vunnet probability excluding draw
11%
10
Points from supplied form
6
3.98
Expected goals
1.08
PSVFortuna Sittard
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01PSV signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fortuna Sittard signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk26% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uavgjort probability alone is 15%.

Match questions

PSV vs Fortuna Sittard FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmeseier · Projected score 4–1 · 74% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

PSV vunnet 74%,Uavgjort 15%,Fortuna Sittard vunnet 11%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 5.06 · Over 2.5 88% · Current selection Over