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PSV vs Fortuna Sittard

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score4–15.06 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger74%
Oavgjort15%
Bortaseger11%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 74% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger74% selection probability
Projected score4–1PSVFortuna Sittard
Expected goals5.06Öppna match profile
Goals 2.5Över88% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa65% for the selected side
Expected corners11.3Över 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
74% / 15% / 11%MatchresultatHemmaseger74%1.35
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Fortuna Sittard win (11.1%)Dubbelchans1X88.9%1.12
Över 88% · Under 12%Goals 2.5Över88%1.14
Ja 65% · Nej 35%Båda lagen gör målJa65%1.54
5.06 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat4–1
11.3 expected match cornersHörnorÖver 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
PSV win74%1.35
Oavgjort15%6.67
Fortuna Sittard win11%9.09

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

PSV3.98

Hemma share of expected goals 78.7%

Total expected goals5.06Öppna

Dedicated goals model: Över 88% · Under 12%

Fortuna Sittard1.08

Borta share of expected goals 21.3%

Projected score4–1BTTS splitJa 65% · Nej 35%Match profileÖppna
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

PSV

2.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Poäng10

SignalHemma unbeaten 4/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Fortuna Sittard

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poäng6

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
74%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
11%
10
Points from supplied form
6
3.98
Expected goals
1.08
PSVFortuna Sittard
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01PSV signalHemma unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Fortuna Sittard signalHemma matches over 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk26% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 15%.

Match questions

PSV vs Fortuna Sittard FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 4–1 · 74% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

PSV vunnen 74%,Oavgjort 15%,Fortuna Sittard vunnen 11%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 5.06 · Över 2.5 88% · Current selection Över