Market dashboard
Every available prediction
Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
47% / 26% / 27%Match resultHome win47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.1%)Double chance1273.9%1.35
Over 55% · Under 45%Goals 2.5Over55%1.82
Yes 57% · No 43%Both teams scoreYes57%1.75
2.90 total expected goalsCorrect score2–1——
9.4 expected match cornersCornersUnder 9.5——
Price comparison
Published forecast vs reference market
Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.
Displayed margin12.1%Largest probability gapCaernarfon winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Caernarfon win47%2.131.9146.7%+0.3 pp
Draw26%3.853.4026.2%-0.2 pp
Penybont win27%3.703.3027%0.0 pp
Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.
Scoring projection
Expected-goals split
Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.
Home share of expected goals 60%
Total expected goals2.90Balanced
Dedicated goals model: Over 55% · Under 45%
Away share of expected goals 40%
Projected score2–1BTTS splitYes 57% · No 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form
Five-result form summary
The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.
Home-context · form sequence
2.40pts / matchCaernarfon
WWWWL
Played5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Points12
SignalHome unbeaten 4/5
Away-context · form sequence
1.00pts / matchPenybont
DWDLL
Played5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5
SignalHome matches over 2.5: 3/5
Side-by-side
Current match outlookMatchup comparison
47%
Win probability excluding draw
27%12
Points from supplied form
51.74
Expected goals
1.16CaernarfonPenybont
Signals and risk
What supports — and challenges — the call
Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.
Model and market agree on HOME
This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.
This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.
This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.
The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 26%.
Match questions
Caernarfon vs Penybont FAQ
What is the current prediction?
Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 2–1 · 47% selection probability.
What are the 1X2 probabilities?
Caernarfon win 47%，Draw 26%，Penybont win 27%。
Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?
Total expected goals 2.90 · Over 2.5 55% · Current selection Over。