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WAL Gales - Premier League · Partido ·

Caernarfon vs Penybont

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score2–12.90 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local47%
Empate26%
Victoria visitante27%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 47% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local47% selection probability
Projected score2–1CaernarfonPenybont
Expected goals2.90Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Más de55% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcan57% for the selected side
Expected corners9.4Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
47% / 26% / 27%Resultado del partidoVictoria local47%2.13
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (26.1%)Doble Oportunidad1273.9%1.35
Más de 55% · Menos de 45%Goals 2.5Más de55%1.82
Sí 57% · No 43%Ambos equipos marcan57%1.75
2.90 total expected goalsMarcador exacto2–1
9.4 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin12.1%Largest probability gapCaernarfon winDifference+0.3 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Caernarfon win47%2.131.9146.7%+0.3 pp
Empate26%3.853.4026.2%-0.2 pp
Penybont win27%3.703.3027%0.0 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Caernarfon1.74

Local share of expected goals 60%

Total expected goals2.90Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Más de 55% · Menos de 45%

Penybont1.16

Visitante share of expected goals 40%

Projected score2–1BTTS split 57% · No 43%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Caernarfon

2.40pts / match
Jugados5Wins4Drawn0Losses1Puntos12

SignalLocal unbeaten 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Penybont

1.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Puntos5

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
47%
Ganado probability excluding draw
27%
12
Points from supplied form
5
1.74
Expected goals
1.16
CaernarfonPenybont
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Caernarfon signalLocal unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Penybont signalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk53% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Caernarfon vs Penybont FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 2–1 · 47% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Caernarfon ganada 47%,Empate 26%,Penybont ganada 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.90 · Más de 2.5 55% · Current selection Más de