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SWE Sweden 1.div Norra · Fixture ·

Umea FC vs AFC Eskilstuna

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Home form
Projected score1–23.31 expected goals
Away form
Home win44%
Draw23%
Away win33%
Full model forecastHome winTier A · 44% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHome win44% selection probability
Projected score1–2Umea FCAFC Eskilstuna
Expected goals3.31Open match profile
Goals 2.5Over64% for the selected side
Both teams scoreYes65% for the selected side
Expected corners10.6Over 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
44% / 23% / 33%Match resultHome win44%2.27
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (23.2%)Double chance1276.8%1.30
Over 64% · Under 36%Goals 2.5Over64%1.56
Yes 65% · No 35%Both teams scoreYes65%1.54
3.31 total expected goalsCorrect score1–2
10.6 expected match cornersCornersOver 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.4%Largest probability gapUmea FC winDifference-0.9 pp
OutcomeForecastFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Umea FC win44%2.272.0044.9%-0.9 pp
Draw23%4.353.9023%0.0 pp
AFC Eskilstuna win33%3.032.8032.1%+0.9 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Umea FC1.41

Home share of expected goals 42.6%

Total expected goals3.31Open

Dedicated goals model: Over 64% · Under 36%

AFC Eskilstuna1.90

Away share of expected goals 57.4%

Projected score1–2BTTS splitYes 65% · No 35%Match profileOpen
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Home-context · form sequence

Umea FC

0.80pts / match
Played5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Points4

SignalAway unbeaten 5/5

Away-context · form sequence

AFC Eskilstuna

2.60pts / match
Played5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Points13

SignalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
44%
Win probability excluding draw
33%
4
Points from supplied form
13
1.41
Expected goals
1.90
Umea FCAFC Eskilstuna
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Umea FC signalAway unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02AFC Eskilstuna signalAway matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk56% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Draw probability alone is 23%.

Match questions

Umea FC vs AFC Eskilstuna FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Home win · Projected score 1–2 · 44% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Umea FC win 44%,Draw 23%,AFC Eskilstuna win 33%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.31 · Over 2.5 64% · Current selection Over