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BRA Brasil - Serie A · Round 21 ·

Santos vs Athletico Paranaense

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–12.29 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local43%
Empate30%
Victoria visitante27%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local43% selection probability
Projected score1–1SantosAthletico Paranaense
Expected goals2.29Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de60% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Más de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
43% / 30% / 27%Resultado del partidoVictoria local43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Athletico Paranaense win (27.3%)Doble Oportunidad1X72.7%1.38
Más de 40% · Menos de 60%Goals 2.5Menos de60%1.67
Sí 47% · No 53%Ambos equipos marcanNo53%1.89
2.29 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–1
9.8 expected match cornersCórnersMás de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapSantos winDifference-1.1 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Santos win43%2.332.1544.1%-1.1 pp
Empate30%3.333.2029.6%+0.4 pp
Athletico Paranaense win27%3.703.6026.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Santos1.06

Local share of expected goals 46.3%

Total expected goals2.29Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Más de 40% · Menos de 60%

Athletico Paranaense1.23

Visitante share of expected goals 53.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 47% · No 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Santos

2.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Puntos10

SignalLocal unbeaten 4/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Athletico Paranaense

2.60pts / match
Jugados5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Puntos13

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Ganado probability excluding draw
27%
10
Points from supplied form
13
1.06
Expected goals
1.23
SantosAthletico Paranaense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Santos signalLocal unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Athletico Paranaense signalLocal matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Santos vs Athletico Paranaense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Santos ganada 43%,Empate 30%,Athletico Paranaense ganada 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.29 · Más de 2.5 40% · Current selection Menos de