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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 21 ·

Сантос vs Атлетико Паранаенсе

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score1–12.29 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев43%
Ничья30%
Победа гостей27%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев43% selection probability
Projected score1–1СантосАтлетико Паранаенсе
Expected goals2.29Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше60% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Больше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
43% / 30% / 27%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Атлетико Паранаенсе win (27.3%)Двойной шанс1X72.7%1.38
Больше 40% · Меньше 60%Goals 2.5Меньше60%1.67
Да 47% · Нет 53%Обе забьютНет53%1.89
2.29 total expected goalsТочный счёт1–1
9.8 expected match cornersУгловыеБольше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapСантос winDifference-1.1 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Сантос win43%2.332.1544.1%-1.1 pp
Ничья30%3.333.2029.6%+0.4 pp
Атлетико Паранаенсе win27%3.703.6026.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Сантос1.06

Хозяева share of expected goals 46.3%

Total expected goals2.29Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Больше 40% · Меньше 60%

Атлетико Паранаенсе1.23

Гости share of expected goals 53.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 47% · Нет 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Сантос

2.00pts / match
Сыграно5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Баллы10

SignalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Атлетико Паранаенсе

2.60pts / match
Сыграно5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Баллы13

SignalХозяева matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
27%
10
Points from supplied form
13
1.06
Expected goals
1.23
СантосАтлетико Паранаенсе
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Сантос signalХозяева unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Атлетико Паранаенсе signalХозяева matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Сантос vs Атлетико Паранаенсе FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Сантос выигрыш 43%,Ничья 30%,Атлетико Паранаенсе выигрыш 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.29 · ТБ 2.5 40% · Current selection Меньше