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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 21 ·

Santos vs Athletico Paranaense

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score1–12.29 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg43%
Unentschieden30%
Auswärtssieg27%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg43% selection probability
Projected score1–1SantosAthletico Paranaense
Expected goals2.29Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Unter60% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Über 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
43% / 30% / 27%SpielergebnisHeimsieg43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Athletico Paranaense win (27.3%)Doppelte Chance1X72.7%1.38
Über 40% · Unter 60%Goals 2.5Unter60%1.67
Ja 47% · Nein 53%Beide Teams treffenNein53%1.89
2.29 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis1–1
9.8 expected match cornersEckenÜber 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapSantos winDifference-1.1 pp
OutcomePrognoseFaire QuoteReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Santos win43%2.332.1544.1%-1.1 pp
Unentschieden30%3.333.2029.6%+0.4 pp
Athletico Paranaense win27%3.703.6026.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Santos1.06

Heim share of expected goals 46.3%

Total expected goals2.29Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Über 40% · Unter 60%

Athletico Paranaense1.23

Auswärts share of expected goals 53.7%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 47% · Nein 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

Santos

2.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punkte10

SignalHeim unbeaten 4/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Athletico Paranaense

2.60pts / match
Gespielt5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Punkte13

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
27%
10
Points from supplied form
13
1.06
Expected goals
1.23
SantosAthletico Paranaense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Santos signalHeim unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Athletico Paranaense signalHeim matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Santos vs Athletico Paranaense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Santos Gewinn 43%,Unentschieden 30%,Athletico Paranaense Gewinn 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.29 · Über 2.5 40% · Current selection Unter