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UTC+8
TijdzoneAsia/Shanghai
Nederlands
BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 22 ·

Santos vs Athletico Paranaense

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Thuis form
Projected score1–12.28 expected goals
Uit form
Thuiswinst43%
Gelijkspel30%
Uitwinst27%
Full model forecastThuiswinstTier A · 43% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callThuiswinst43% selection probability
Projected score1–1SantosAthletico Paranaense
Expected goals2.28Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Onder60% for the selected side
Beide teams scorenNee53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.8Boven 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelectieWaarschijnlijkheidEerlijke odds
43% / 30% / 27%WedstrijdresultaatThuiswinst43%2.33
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Athletico Paranaense win (27.3%)Dubbele Kans1X72.7%1.38
Boven 40% · Onder 60%Goals 2.5Onder60%1.67
Ja 47% · Nee 53%Beide teams scorenNee53%1.89
2.28 total expected goalsExacte score1–1
9.8 expected match cornersHoekschoppenBoven 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapSantos winDifference-1.1 pp
OutcomeVoorspellingEerlijke oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Santos win43%2.332.1544.1%-1.1 pp
Gelijkspel30%3.333.2029.6%+0.4 pp
Athletico Paranaense win27%3.703.6026.3%+0.7 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Santos1.06

Thuis share of expected goals 46.5%

Total expected goals2.28Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Boven 40% · Onder 60%

Athletico Paranaense1.22

Uit share of expected goals 53.5%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 47% · Nee 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Thuis-context · form sequence

Santos

2.00pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins3Drawn1Losses1Punten10

SignalThuis unbeaten 4/5

Uit-context · form sequence

Athletico Paranaense

2.60pts / match
Gespeeld5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Punten13

SignalThuis matches over 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
43%
Gewonnen probability excluding draw
27%
10
Points from supplied form
13
1.06
Expected goals
1.22
SantosAthletico Paranaense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans HOME; raw model leaned AWAY

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Santos signalThuis unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Athletico Paranaense signalThuis matches over 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk57% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Gelijkspel probability alone is 30%.

Match questions

Santos vs Athletico Paranaense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Thuiswinst · Projected score 1–1 · 43% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Santos gewonnen 43%,Gelijkspel 30%,Athletico Paranaense gewonnen 27%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.28 · Boven 2.5 40% · Current selection Onder