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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 21 ·

Gremio vs Sao Paulo

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score1–12.32 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев41%
Ничья29%
Победа гостей30%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев41% selection probability
Projected score1–1GremioSao Paulo
Expected goals2.32Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Меньше59% for the selected side
Обе забьютНет53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
41% / 29% / 30%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.1%)Двойной шанс1270.9%1.41
Больше 41% · Меньше 59%Goals 2.5Меньше59%1.69
Да 47% · Нет 53%Обе забьютНет53%1.89
2.32 total expected goalsТочный счёт1–1
9.6 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapSao Paulo winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Gremio win41%2.442.3041.2%-0.2 pp
Ничья29%3.453.2529.2%-0.2 pp
Sao Paulo win30%3.333.2029.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Gremio1.30

Хозяева share of expected goals 56%

Total expected goals2.32Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Больше 41% · Меньше 59%

Sao Paulo1.02

Гости share of expected goals 44%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 47% · Нет 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Gremio

0.20pts / match
Сыграно5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Баллы1

SignalХозяева matches over 2.5: 3/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Sao Paulo

1.00pts / match
Сыграно5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Баллы5

SignalГости matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
30%
1
Points from supplied form
5
1.30
Expected goals
1.02
GremioSao Paulo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Gremio signalХозяева matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sao Paulo signalГости matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Gremio vs Sao Paulo FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 1–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Gremio выигрыш 41%,Ничья 29%,Sao Paulo выигрыш 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.32 · ТБ 2.5 41% · Current selection Меньше