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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 21 ·

Gremio vs Sao Paulo

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Домакин form
Projected score1–12.32 expected goals
Гост form
Победа за домакина41%
Равен29%
Победа за госта30%
Full model forecastПобеда за домакинаTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда за домакина41% selection probability
Projected score1–1GremioSao Paulo
Expected goals2.32Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Под59% for the selected side
И двата отбора да отбележатНе53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Под 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketИзборВероятностСправедлив коефициент
41% / 29% / 30%Резултат от мачаПобеда за домакина41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.1%)Двоен шанс1270.9%1.41
Над 41% · Под 59%Goals 2.5Под59%1.69
Да 47% · Не 53%И двата отбора да отбележатНе53%1.89
2.32 total expected goalsТочен резултат1–1
9.6 expected match cornersКорнериПод 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapSao Paulo winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomeПрогнозаСправедлив коефициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Gremio win41%2.442.3041.2%-0.2 pp
Равен29%3.453.2529.2%-0.2 pp
Sao Paulo win30%3.333.2029.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Gremio1.30

Домакин share of expected goals 56%

Total expected goals2.32Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Над 41% · Под 59%

Sao Paulo1.02

Гост share of expected goals 44%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitДа 47% · Не 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Домакин-context · form sequence

Gremio

0.20pts / match
Изиграни5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Точки1

SignalДомакин matches over 2.5: 3/5

Гост-context · form sequence

Sao Paulo

1.00pts / match
Изиграни5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Точки5

SignalГост matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Печеливш probability excluding draw
30%
1
Points from supplied form
5
1.30
Expected goals
1.02
GremioSao Paulo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Gremio signalДомакин matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sao Paulo signalГост matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Равен probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Gremio vs Sao Paulo FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа за домакина · Projected score 1–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Gremio печеливш 41%,Равен 29%,Sao Paulo печеливш 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.32 · Над 2.5 41% · Current selection Под