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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 21 ·

Gremio vs Sao Paulo

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.32 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr41%
Uafgjort29%
Udesejr30%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr41% selection probability
Projected score1–1GremioSao Paulo
Expected goals2.32Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under59% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
41% / 29% / 30%KampresultatHjemmesejr41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.1%)Dobbeltchance1270.9%1.41
Over 41% · Under 59%Goals 2.5Under59%1.69
Ja 47% · Nej 53%Begge hold scorerNej53%1.89
2.32 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
9.6 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapSao Paulo winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Gremio win41%2.442.3041.2%-0.2 pp
Uafgjort29%3.453.2529.2%-0.2 pp
Sao Paulo win30%3.333.2029.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Gremio1.30

Hjemme share of expected goals 56%

Total expected goals2.32Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 41% · Under 59%

Sao Paulo1.02

Ude share of expected goals 44%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 47% · Nej 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Gremio

0.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Point1

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Sao Paulo

1.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Point5

SignalUde matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Vundet probability excluding draw
30%
1
Points from supplied form
5
1.30
Expected goals
1.02
GremioSao Paulo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Gremio signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sao Paulo signalUde matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Gremio vs Sao Paulo FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Gremio vundet 41%,Uafgjort 29%,Sao Paulo vundet 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.32 · Over 2.5 41% · Current selection Under