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BRA Brasil - Serie A · Round 21 ·

Gremio vs São Paulo

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score1–12.32 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local41%
Empate29%
Victoria visitante30%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local41% selection probability
Projected score1–1GremioSão Paulo
Expected goals2.32Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Menos de59% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcanNo53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
41% / 29% / 30%Resultado del partidoVictoria local41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.1%)Doble Oportunidad1270.9%1.41
Más de 41% · Menos de 59%Goals 2.5Menos de59%1.69
Sí 47% · No 53%Ambos equipos marcanNo53%1.89
2.32 total expected goalsMarcador exacto1–1
9.6 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapSão Paulo winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Gremio win41%2.442.3041.2%-0.2 pp
Empate29%3.453.2529.2%-0.2 pp
São Paulo win30%3.333.2029.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Gremio1.30

Local share of expected goals 56%

Total expected goals2.32Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Más de 41% · Menos de 59%

São Paulo1.02

Visitante share of expected goals 44%

Projected score1–1BTTS split 47% · No 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Gremio

0.20pts / match
Jugados5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Puntos1

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

São Paulo

1.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Puntos5

SignalVisitante matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Ganado probability excluding draw
30%
1
Points from supplied form
5
1.30
Expected goals
1.02
GremioSão Paulo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Gremio signalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02São Paulo signalVisitante matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Gremio vs São Paulo FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 1–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Gremio ganada 41%,Empate 29%,São Paulo ganada 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.32 · Más de 2.5 41% · Current selection Menos de