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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 21 ·

Gremio vs Sao Paulo

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score1–12.32 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy41%
Remis29%
Wygrana gości30%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 41% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy41% selection probability
Projected score1–1GremioSao Paulo
Expected goals2.32Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Poniżej59% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląNie53% for the selected side
Expected corners9.6Poniżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
41% / 29% / 30%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy41%2.44
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (29.1%)Podwójna szansa1270.9%1.41
Powyżej 41% · Poniżej 59%Goals 2.5Poniżej59%1.69
Tak 47% · Nie 53%Obie drużyny strzeląNie53%1.89
2.32 total expected goalsDokładny wynik1–1
9.6 expected match cornersRożnePoniżej 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.5%Largest probability gapSao Paulo winDifference+0.4 pp
OutcomePrognozaUczciwy kursReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Gremio win41%2.442.3041.2%-0.2 pp
Remis29%3.453.2529.2%-0.2 pp
Sao Paulo win30%3.333.2029.6%+0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Gremio1.30

Gospodarze share of expected goals 56%

Total expected goals2.32Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 41% · Poniżej 59%

Sao Paulo1.02

Goście share of expected goals 44%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitTak 47% · Nie 53%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Gremio

0.20pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Punkty1

SignalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 3/5

Goście-context · form sequence

Sao Paulo

1.00pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punkty5

SignalGoście matches under 2.5: 4/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
41%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
30%
1
Points from supplied form
5
1.30
Expected goals
1.02
GremioSao Paulo
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Gremio signalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Sao Paulo signalGoście matches under 2.5: 4/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk59% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Gremio vs Sao Paulo FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 1–1 · 41% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Gremio wygrana 41%,Remis 29%,Sao Paulo wygrana 30%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.32 · Powyżej 2.5 41% · Current selection Poniżej