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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 21 ·

Coritiba vs Chapecoense

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Gospodarze form
Projected score2–12.91 expected goals
Goście form
Wygrana gospodarzy58%
Remis26%
Wygrana gości16%
Full model forecastWygrana gospodarzyTier A · 58% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callWygrana gospodarzy58% selection probability
Projected score2–1CoritibaChapecoense
Expected goals2.91Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Powyżej56% for the selected side
Obie drużyny strzeląTak50% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Poniżej 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketWybórPrawdopodobieństwoUczciwy kurs
58% / 26% / 16%Wynik meczuWygrana gospodarzy58%1.72
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Chapecoense win (16.3%)Podwójna szansa1X83.7%1.19
Powyżej 56% · Poniżej 44%Goals 2.5Powyżej56%1.79
Tak 50% · Nie 50%Obie drużyny strzeląTak50%2.00
2.91 total expected goalsDokładny wynik2–1
9.7 expected match cornersRożnePoniżej 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.8%Largest probability gapCoritiba winDifference+0.7 pp
OutcomePrognozaUczciwy kursReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Coritiba win58%1.721.6557.3%+0.7 pp
Remis26%3.853.6026.3%-0.3 pp
Chapecoense win16%6.255.7516.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Coritiba2.05

Gospodarze share of expected goals 70.4%

Total expected goals2.91Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Powyżej 56% · Poniżej 44%

Chapecoense0.86

Goście share of expected goals 29.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitTak 50% · Nie 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Gospodarze-context · form sequence

Coritiba

0.80pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Punkty4

SignalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 3/5

Goście-context · form sequence

Chapecoense

0.20pts / match
Rozegrane5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Punkty1

SignalGospodarze failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
58%
Wygrana probability excluding draw
16%
4
Points from supplied form
1
2.05
Expected goals
0.86
CoritibaChapecoense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Coritiba signalGospodarze matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Chapecoense signalGospodarze failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk42% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Remis probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Coritiba vs Chapecoense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Wygrana gospodarzy · Projected score 2–1 · 58% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Coritiba wygrana 58%,Remis 26%,Chapecoense wygrana 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.91 · Powyżej 2.5 56% · Current selection Powyżej