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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 21 ·

Coritiba vs Chapecoense

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.91 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger58%
Oavgjort26%
Bortaseger16%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 58% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger58% selection probability
Projected score2–1CoritibaChapecoense
Expected goals2.91Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Över56% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målJa50% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
58% / 26% / 16%MatchresultatHemmaseger58%1.72
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Chapecoense win (16.3%)Dubbelchans1X83.7%1.19
Över 56% · Under 44%Goals 2.5Över56%1.79
Ja 50% · Nej 50%Båda lagen gör målJa50%2.00
2.91 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.7 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.8%Largest probability gapCoritiba winDifference+0.7 pp
OutcomePrognosRättvist oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Coritiba win58%1.721.6557.3%+0.7 pp
Oavgjort26%3.853.6026.3%-0.3 pp
Chapecoense win16%6.255.7516.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Coritiba2.05

Hemma share of expected goals 70.4%

Total expected goals2.91Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 56% · Under 44%

Chapecoense0.86

Borta share of expected goals 29.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 50% · Nej 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

Coritiba

0.80pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Poäng4

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Chapecoense

0.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Poäng1

SignalHemma failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
58%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
16%
4
Points from supplied form
1
2.05
Expected goals
0.86
CoritibaChapecoense
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Coritiba signalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Chapecoense signalHemma failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk42% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Coritiba vs Chapecoense FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 58% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Coritiba vunnen 58%,Oavgjort 26%,Chapecoense vunnen 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.91 · Över 2.5 56% · Current selection Över