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BRA Brazil Serie A · Round 21 ·

Coritiba vs Шапекоэнсе

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Хозяева form
Projected score2–12.91 expected goals
Гости form
Победа хозяев58%
Ничья26%
Победа гостей16%
Full model forecastПобеда хозяевTier A · 58% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callПобеда хозяев58% selection probability
Projected score2–1CoritibaШапекоэнсе
Expected goals2.91Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Больше56% for the selected side
Обе забьютДа50% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Меньше 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketВыборВероятностьСправедливый коэффициент
58% / 26% / 16%Исход матчаПобеда хозяев58%1.72
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Шапекоэнсе win (16.3%)Двойной шанс1X83.7%1.19
Больше 56% · Меньше 44%Goals 2.5Больше56%1.79
Да 50% · Нет 50%Обе забьютДа50%2.00
2.91 total expected goalsТочный счёт2–1
9.7 expected match cornersУгловыеМеньше 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin5.8%Largest probability gapCoritiba winDifference+0.7 pp
OutcomeПрогнозСправедливый коэффициентReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Coritiba win58%1.721.6557.3%+0.7 pp
Ничья26%3.853.6026.3%-0.3 pp
Шапекоэнсе win16%6.255.7516.4%-0.4 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Coritiba2.05

Хозяева share of expected goals 70.4%

Total expected goals2.91Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Больше 56% · Меньше 44%

Шапекоэнсе0.86

Гости share of expected goals 29.6%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitДа 50% · Нет 50%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Хозяева-context · form sequence

Coritiba

0.80pts / match
Сыграно5Wins1Drawn1Losses3Баллы4

SignalХозяева matches over 2.5: 3/5

Гости-context · form sequence

Шапекоэнсе

0.20pts / match
Сыграно5Wins0Drawn1Losses4Баллы1

SignalХозяева failed to score: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
58%
Выигрыш probability excluding draw
16%
4
Points from supplied form
1
2.05
Expected goals
0.86
CoritibaШапекоэнсе
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Coritiba signalХозяева matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Шапекоэнсе signalХозяева failed to score: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk42% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Ничья probability alone is 26%.

Match questions

Coritiba vs Шапекоэнсе FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Победа хозяев · Projected score 2–1 · 58% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Coritiba выигрыш 58%,Ничья 26%,Шапекоэнсе выигрыш 16%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.91 · ТБ 2.5 56% · Current selection Больше