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ESP Spanien - Primera Division RFEF - Gruppe 2 · Kamp ·

Hercules vs Real Murcia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score1–12.09 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr29%
Uafgjort29%
Udesejr42%
Full model forecastUdesejrTier A · 42% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callUdesejr42% selection probability
Projected score1–1HerculesReal Murcia
Expected goals2.09Low-scoring match profile
Goals 2.5Under65% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej59% for the selected side
Expected corners8.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
29% / 29% / 42%KampresultatUdesejr42%2.38
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Hercules win (28.9%)DobbeltchanceX271.1%1.41
Over 35% · Under 65%Goals 2.5Under65%1.54
Ja 41% · Nej 59%Begge hold scorerNej59%1.69
2.09 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat1–1
8.7 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin11.8%Largest probability gapReal Murcia winDifference-1.6 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Hercules win29%3.453.2527.5%+1.5 pp
Uafgjort29%3.453.1028.9%+0.1 pp
Real Murcia win42%2.382.0543.6%-1.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Hercules1.27

Hjemme share of expected goals 60.8%

Total expected goals2.09Low-scoring

Dedicated goals model: Over 35% · Under 65%

Real Murcia0.82

Ude share of expected goals 39.2%

Projected score1–1BTTS splitJa 41% · Nej 59%Match profileLow-scoring
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Hercules

1.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn3Losses1Point6

SignalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Real Murcia

2.60pts / match
Spillet5Wins4Drawn1Losses0Point13

SignalHjemme matches under 2.5: 5/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
29%
Vundet probability excluding draw
42%
6
Points from supplied form
13
1.27
Expected goals
0.82
HerculesReal Murcia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Market-aware blend leans AWAY; raw model leaned HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Hercules signalHjemme unbeaten 4/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Real Murcia signalHjemme matches under 2.5: 5/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk58% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 29%.

Match questions

Hercules vs Real Murcia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Udesejr · Projected score 1–1 · 42% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Hercules vundet 29%,Uafgjort 29%,Real Murcia vundet 42%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.09 · Over 2.5 35% · Current selection Under