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CYP Cypern - 1. division · Kamp ·

AEK Larnaca vs APOEL

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–12.55 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr48%
Uafgjort28%
Udesejr23%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr48% selection probability
Projected score2–1AEK LarnacaAPOEL
Expected goals2.55Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under53% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerNej52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
48% / 28% / 23%KampresultatHjemmesejr48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes APOEL win (23.5%)Dobbeltchance1X76.5%1.31
Over 47% · Under 53%Goals 2.5Under53%1.89
Ja 48% · Nej 52%Begge hold scorerNej52%1.92
2.55 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.7 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFair odds
AEK Larnaca win48%2.08
Uafgjort28%3.57
APOEL win23%4.35

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

AEK Larnaca1.67

Hjemme share of expected goals 65.5%

Total expected goals2.55Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Over 47% · Under 53%

APOEL0.88

Ude share of expected goals 34.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nej 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

AEK Larnaca

1.20pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Point6

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Ude-context · form sequence

APOEL

1.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Point5

SignalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Vundet probability excluding draw
23%
6
Points from supplied form
5
1.67
Expected goals
0.88
AEK LarnacaAPOEL
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01AEK Larnaca signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02APOEL signalHjemme failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

AEK Larnaca vs APOEL FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

AEK Larnaca vundet 48%,Uafgjort 28%,APOEL vundet 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.55 · Over 2.5 47% · Current selection Under