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CYP Cypern - Division 1 · Match ·

AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hemma form
Projected score2–12.55 expected goals
Borta form
Hemmaseger48%
Oavgjort28%
Bortaseger23%
Full model forecastHemmasegerTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHemmaseger48% selection probability
Projected score2–1AEK LarnacaApoel Nicosia
Expected goals2.55Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Under53% for the selected side
Båda lagen gör målNej52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValSannolikhetRättvist odds
48% / 28% / 23%MatchresultatHemmaseger48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Apoel Nicosia win (23.5%)Dubbelchans1X76.5%1.31
Över 47% · Under 53%Goals 2.5Under53%1.89
Ja 48% · Nej 52%Båda lagen gör målNej52%1.92
2.55 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–1
9.7 expected match cornersHörnorUnder 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nej snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityRättvist odds
AEK Larnaca win48%2.08
Oavgjort28%3.57
Apoel Nicosia win23%4.35

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

AEK Larnaca1.67

Hemma share of expected goals 65.5%

Total expected goals2.55Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Över 47% · Under 53%

Apoel Nicosia0.88

Borta share of expected goals 34.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nej 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hemma-context · form sequence

AEK Larnaca

1.20pts / match
Spelade5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Poäng6

SignalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

Borta-context · form sequence

Apoel Nicosia

1.00pts / match
Spelade5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Poäng5

SignalHemma failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Vunnen probability excluding draw
23%
6
Points from supplied form
5
1.67
Expected goals
0.88
AEK LarnacaApoel Nicosia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01AEK Larnaca signalHemma matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Apoel Nicosia signalHemma failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Oavgjort probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hemmaseger · Projected score 2–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

AEK Larnaca vunnen 48%,Oavgjort 28%,Apoel Nicosia vunnen 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.55 · Över 2.5 47% · Current selection Under