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CYP Zypern - 1. Division · Spiel ·

AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nikosia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Heim form
Projected score2–12.55 expected goals
Auswärts form
Heimsieg48%
Unentschieden28%
Auswärtssieg23%
Full model forecastHeimsiegTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHeimsieg48% selection probability
Projected score2–1AEK LarnacaApoel Nikosia
Expected goals2.55Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Unter53% for the selected side
Beide Teams treffenNein52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Unter 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketAuswahlWahrscheinlichkeitFaire Quote
48% / 28% / 23%SpielergebnisHeimsieg48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Apoel Nikosia win (23.5%)Doppelte Chance1X76.5%1.31
Über 47% · Unter 53%Goals 2.5Unter53%1.89
Ja 48% · Nein 52%Beide Teams treffenNein52%1.92
2.55 total expected goalsGenaues Ergebnis2–1
9.7 expected match cornersEckenUnter 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Nein snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityFaire Quote
AEK Larnaca win48%2.08
Unentschieden28%3.57
Apoel Nikosia win23%4.35

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

AEK Larnaca1.67

Heim share of expected goals 65.5%

Total expected goals2.55Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Über 47% · Unter 53%

Apoel Nikosia0.88

Auswärts share of expected goals 34.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitJa 48% · Nein 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Heim-context · form sequence

AEK Larnaca

1.20pts / match
Gespielt5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Punkte6

SignalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

Auswärts-context · form sequence

Apoel Nikosia

1.00pts / match
Gespielt5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punkte5

SignalHeim failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Gewinn probability excluding draw
23%
6
Points from supplied form
5
1.67
Expected goals
0.88
AEK LarnacaApoel Nikosia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01AEK Larnaca signalHeim matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Apoel Nikosia signalHeim failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Unentschieden probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nikosia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Heimsieg · Projected score 2–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

AEK Larnaca Gewinn 48%,Unentschieden 28%,Apoel Nikosia Gewinn 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.55 · Über 2.5 47% · Current selection Unter