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CYP Chypre - 1re Division · Match ·

AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Domicile form
Projected score2–12.55 expected goals
Extérieur form
Victoire à domicile48%
Nul28%
Victoire à l’extérieur23%
Full model forecastVictoire à domicileTier A · 48% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME Compare the forecast probabilities, fair prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoire à domicile48% selection probability
Projected score2–1AEK LarnacaApoel Nicosia
Expected goals2.55Balanced match profile
Goals 2.5Moins de53% for the selected side
Les deux équipes marquentNon52% for the selected side
Expected corners9.7Moins de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSélectionProbabilitéCote juste
48% / 28% / 23%Résultat du matchVictoire à domicile48%2.08
Derived from 1X2 · excludes Apoel Nicosia win (23.5%)Double chance1X76.5%1.31
Plus de 47% · Moins de 53%Goals 2.5Moins de53%1.89
Oui 48% · Non 52%Les deux équipes marquentNon52%1.92
2.55 total expected goalsScore exact2–1
9.7 expected match cornersCornersMoins de 9.5
Probability view

Forecast probabilities and fair odds

Non snapshot-bound 1X2 price was available for this forecast, so this page does not show a market comparison or probability-gap claim.

OutcomeForecast probabilityCote juste
AEK Larnaca win48%2.08
Nul28%3.57
Apoel Nicosia win23%4.35

Fair odds are calculated directly from the published forecast probabilities and are not bookmaker prices.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

AEK Larnaca1.67

Domicile share of expected goals 65.5%

Total expected goals2.55Balanced

Dedicated goals model: Plus de 47% · Moins de 53%

Apoel Nicosia0.88

Extérieur share of expected goals 34.5%

Projected score2–1BTTS splitOui 48% · Non 52%Match profileBalanced
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Domicile-context · form sequence

AEK Larnaca

1.20pts / match
Joués5Wins2Drawn0Losses3Points6

SignalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

Extérieur-context · form sequence

Apoel Nicosia

1.00pts / match
Joués5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Points5

SignalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
48%
Gagné probability excluding draw
23%
6
Points from supplied form
5
1.67
Expected goals
0.88
AEK LarnacaApoel Nicosia
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Calibrated Dixon-Coles leans HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01AEK Larnaca signalDomicile matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Apoel Nicosia signalDomicile failed to score: 2/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk52% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Nul probability alone is 28%.

Match questions

AEK Larnaca vs Apoel Nicosia FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoire à domicile · Projected score 2–1 · 48% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

AEK Larnaca victoire 48%,Nul 28%,Apoel Nicosia victoire 23%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 2.55 · Plus de 2.5 47% · Current selection Moins de