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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Venados FC vs Tapatio

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Hjemme form
Projected score2–23.93 expected goals
Ude form
Hjemmesejr50%
Uafgjort25%
Udesejr26%
Full model forecastHjemmesejrTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callHjemmesejr50% selection probability
Projected score2–2Venados FCTapatio
Expected goals3.93Åbn match profile
Goals 2.5Over75% for the selected side
Begge hold scorerJa73% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Under 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketValgSandsynlighedFair odds
50% / 25% / 26%KampresultatHjemmesejr50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.7%)Dobbeltchance1275.3%1.33
Over 75% · Under 25%Goals 2.5Over75%1.33
Ja 73% · Nej 27%Begge hold scorerJa73%1.37
3.93 total expected goalsKorrekt resultat2–2
9.3 expected match cornersHjørnesparkUnder 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.3%Largest probability gapTapatio winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomePrognoseFair oddsReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Venados FC win50%2.001.9049.5%+0.5 pp
Uafgjort25%4.003.7525.1%-0.1 pp
Tapatio win26%3.853.7025.4%+0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Venados FC2.26

Hjemme share of expected goals 57.5%

Total expected goals3.93Åbn

Dedicated goals model: Over 75% · Under 25%

Tapatio1.67

Ude share of expected goals 42.5%

Projected score2–2BTTS splitJa 73% · Nej 27%Match profileÅbn
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Hjemme-context · form sequence

Venados FC

1.80pts / match
Spillet5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Point9

SignalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

Ude-context · form sequence

Tapatio

1.00pts / match
Spillet5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Point5

SignalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Vundet probability excluding draw
26%
9
Points from supplied form
5
2.26
Expected goals
1.67
Venados FCTapatio
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Venados FC signalHjemme unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tapatio signalHjemme matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Uafgjort probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Venados FC vs Tapatio FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Hjemmesejr · Projected score 2–2 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Venados FC vundet 50%,Uafgjort 25%,Tapatio vundet 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.93 · Over 2.5 75% · Current selection Over