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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Venados FC vs Tapatio

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Local form
Projected score2–23.93 expected goals
Visitante form
Victoria local50%
Empate25%
Victoria visitante26%
Full model forecastVictoria localTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVictoria local50% selection probability
Projected score2–2Venados FCTapatio
Expected goals3.93Abrir match profile
Goals 2.5Más de75% for the selected side
Ambos equipos marcan73% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Menos de 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelecciónProbabilidadCuotas justas
50% / 25% / 26%Resultado del partidoVictoria local50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.7%)Doble Oportunidad1275.3%1.33
Más de 75% · Menos de 25%Goals 2.5Más de75%1.33
Sí 73% · No 27%Ambos equipos marcan73%1.37
3.93 total expected goalsMarcador exacto2–2
9.3 expected match cornersCórnersMenos de 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.3%Largest probability gapTapatio winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomePronósticoCuotas justasReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Venados FC win50%2.001.9049.5%+0.5 pp
Empate25%4.003.7525.1%-0.1 pp
Tapatio win26%3.853.7025.4%+0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Venados FC2.26

Local share of expected goals 57.5%

Total expected goals3.93Abrir

Dedicated goals model: Más de 75% · Menos de 25%

Tapatio1.67

Visitante share of expected goals 42.5%

Projected score2–2BTTS split 73% · No 27%Match profileAbrir
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Local-context · form sequence

Venados FC

1.80pts / match
Jugados5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Puntos9

SignalLocal unbeaten 5/5

Visitante-context · form sequence

Tapatio

1.00pts / match
Jugados5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Puntos5

SignalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Ganado probability excluding draw
26%
9
Points from supplied form
5
2.26
Expected goals
1.67
Venados FCTapatio
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Venados FC signalLocal unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tapatio signalLocal matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Empate probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Venados FC vs Tapatio FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Victoria local · Projected score 2–2 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Venados FC ganada 50%,Empate 25%,Tapatio ganada 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.93 · Más de 2.5 75% · Current selection Más de