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MEX Mexico Liga de Expansion · Round 3 ·

Venados FC vs Tapatio

Full model forecast,stats and analysis

Casa form
Projected score2–23.93 expected goals
Trasferta form
Vittoria casa50%
Pareggio25%
Vittoria ospite26%
Full model forecastVittoria casaTier A · 50% selection probability
Full model forecast · Tier A

Match prediction

Model and market agree on HOME Compare the forecast, reference prices, form and key match signals below.

Primary callVittoria casa50% selection probability
Projected score2–2Venados FCTapatio
Expected goals3.93Apertura match profile
Goals 2.5Sopra75% for the selected side
Entrambe le squadre segnano73% for the selected side
Expected corners9.3Sotto 9.5
Market dashboard

Every available prediction

Each row shows the selection and probability for that market. Correct-score and corner projections do not include standalone probabilities.

MarketSelezioneProbabilitàQuote eque
50% / 25% / 26%Esito partitaVittoria casa50%2.00
Derived from 1X2 · excludes draw (24.7%)Doppia Chance1275.3%1.33
Sopra 75% · Sotto 25%Goals 2.5Sopra75%1.33
Sì 73% · No 27%Entrambe le squadre segnano73%1.37
3.93 total expected goalsRisultato esatto2–2
9.3 expected match cornersCornerSotto 9.5
Price comparison

Published forecast vs reference market

Reference odds are converted to normalized probabilities. The gap is descriptive and is not a claim of guaranteed value.

Displayed margin6.3%Largest probability gapTapatio winDifference+0.6 pp
OutcomePronosticoQuote equeReference oddsNormalized marketDifference
Venados FC win50%2.001.9049.5%+0.5 pp
Pareggio25%4.003.7525.1%-0.1 pp
Tapatio win26%3.853.7025.4%+0.6 pp

Reference odds are the pre-match prices stored with this forecast; later market movements do not change the original review.

Scoring projection

Expected-goals split

Expected goals show how the projected scoring total is divided between the two teams.

Venados FC2.26

Casa share of expected goals 57.5%

Total expected goals3.93Apertura

Dedicated goals model: Sopra 75% · Sotto 25%

Tapatio1.67

Trasferta share of expected goals 42.5%

Projected score2–2BTTS split 73% · No 27%Match profileApertura
Recent form

Five-result form summary

The five displayed results are summarized into wins, draws, losses and points for a quick comparison.

Casa-context · form sequence

Venados FC

1.80pts / match
Giocate5Wins2Drawn3Losses0Punti9

SignalCasa unbeaten 5/5

Trasferta-context · form sequence

Tapatio

1.00pts / match
Giocate5Wins1Drawn2Losses2Punti5

SignalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

Side-by-side

Matchup comparison

Current match outlook
50%
Vinta probability excluding draw
26%
9
Points from supplied form
5
2.26
Expected goals
1.67
Venados FCTapatio
Signals and risk

What supports — and challenges — the call

Signals are kept separate from derived risk checks so the page never turns one trend into certainty.

Match signal

Model and market agree on HOME

This is the main matchup observation to consider alongside the probabilities and recent form.

01Venados FC signalCasa unbeaten 5/5

This trend belongs to the home team and should be read alongside the probability table.

02Tapatio signalCasa matches over 2.5: 3/5

This trend belongs to the away team and does not override the independent market probabilities.

!Primary-call risk50% outside the selected call

The selected outcome can still fail. Pareggio probability alone is 25%.

Match questions

Venados FC vs Tapatio FAQ

What is the current prediction?

Current prediction: Vittoria casa · Projected score 2–2 · 50% selection probability.

What are the 1X2 probabilities?

Venados FC vinta 50%,Pareggio 25%,Tapatio vinta 26%。

Is this expected to be a high-scoring match?

Total expected goals 3.93 · Sopra 2.5 75% · Current selection Sopra